We use cookies to improve your experience.
xomarket
“The U.S. blockade on Iranian ports remains in place, while negotiations reportedly include lifting it in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This market resolves based on whether the United States government publicly announces that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has ended or will end, on or before October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC.”
The market resolves based on a public statement by the U.S. government or clear reporting that the U.S. government has formally announced the blockade’s termination. Primary resolution sources are White House / U.S. government official releases and Reuters. However, other official sources may be used as a secondary source. If terminology differs - for example, “lift,” “terminate,” “end,” or “cease enforcement” - the announcement qualifies if it clearly establishes that the U.S. blockade itself is ending rather than merely being modified, temporarily suspended, or discussed. The announcement is sufficient, the blockade does not need to have physically ended by October 31, provided the U.S. formally announces by the deadline that it will end. Resolves to Yes if the U.S. government publicly announces on or before October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has ended, is being lifted or terminated or will end pursuant to an announced agreement or decision. The effective date may occur after October 31, provided the formal announcement occurs by the deadline. Resolves to No if by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC, the U.S. has not publicly announced an end to the blockade. This includes situations where negotiations to end the blockade are ongoing, Iran or another country claims the blockade will end but the U.S. has not confirmed it, the U.S. temporarily pauses or reduces enforcement without announcing an end to the blockade, individual sanctions or restrictions are lifted while the broader blockade remains in force, or an agreement is proposed or reported but has not been formally announced or confirmed by the U.S. government.
The U.S. blockade on Iranian ports remains in place, while negotiations reportedly include lifting it in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This market resolves based on whether the United States government publicly announces that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has ended or will end, on or before October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC.