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xomarket
“The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.94%, after already tagging 5% this month. That still leaves roughly 55 bps to 5.5%. After a grind higher this year, will the official 10-year par yield print 5.5% or more before 2027?”
This market will resolve based on whether the U.S. Treasury 10-year par yield reaches or exceeds 5.50% on any official daily print after market launch and on or before December 31, 2026. The market resolves to “Yes” if the Department of the Treasury lists a “10 Yr” Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate of 5.50% or higher on any qualifying date in the market period. The market resolves to “No” if there is no verifiable official daily print of 5.50% or higher during the market period. Primary resolution source is the U.S. Department of the Treasury, specifically the “10 Yr” column under Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=dailytreasuryyieldcurve. If that page is unavailable or the relevant daily data is missing or incomplete, a consensus of credible official/secondary sources (such as the St. Louis Fed / FRED DGS10 series aligned to the Treasury par curve) will be taken into consideration. Only official daily 10-year par yield prints count. Intraday spikes, futures, unofficial quotes, estimates, and projections do not count. The final check will be carried out on December 31, 2026 at 23:59 UTC. Any updates after this time will not be taken into account. If the outcome cannot be reasonably determined from the designated sources within a reasonable time after December 31, 2026, the market will be voided.
The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.94%, after already tagging 5% this month. That still leaves roughly 55 bps to 5.5%. After a grind higher this year, will the official 10-year par yield print 5.5% or more before 2027?