Will Mojtaba Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through 2026?

This market will resolve based on whether Mojtaba Khamenei continues to de facto hold and exercise the powers of Supreme Leader (head of state) of the Islamic Republic of Iran at any point after market launch and through December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. The market resolves to “Yes” if Mojtaba Khamenei de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority as Supreme Leader at the deadline, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title or international recognition. Formal appointment is not required. The market resolves to “No” if Mojtaba Khamenei does not exercise primary governing authority as Supreme Leader at the deadline.If more than one individual claims the position, the market resolves based on who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators include control over the armed forces and security services, executive ministries, enforcement of national laws, issuance of binding directives, and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, or nomination without effective authority do not qualify.Acting or caretaker status counts only if the individual exercises the primary powers described above. Detention, effective removal, or being permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties counts as no longer holding the position. Rumors and unconfirmed media speculation do not qualify. Primary resolution source: a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time. If the outcome cannot be reasonably determined, the market will be voided.

Mojtaba Khamenei is a senior figure in Iran’s leadership. This market asks whether he remains the de facto Supreme Leader (exercising primary governing authority) through the end of 2026.