Will France declare a state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve based on whether a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point after market launch and on or before December 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC. The market resolves to “Yes” if a decree explicitly constituting a “state of emergency” (état d’urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l’état d’urgence) enters into effect by the deadline. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, qualifies. The market resolves to “No” if no such decree enters into effect by December 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d’urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the “Urgence attentat” level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count.Primary resolution source: Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr). A consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. If the outcome cannot be reasonably determined, the market will be voided.

France has previously used the state of emergency (état d’urgence) under the 1955 law during periods of heightened security risk. This market asks whether the government will again issue a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 that enters into force by December 31, 2026.