Will 19 Oct 2026 be another Black Monday?

This market resolves YES if the official closing value of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the regular trading session (9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET) on Monday, October 19, 2026 is at or below 7,276.46. 7,276.46 is the highest closing value, to the cent, that is at least 5% below the official closing value of Friday, October 16, 2026 (7,659.44). Otherwise, this market resolves NO."Black Monday" in this market means only this condition. Intraday prices, futures, and pre-market, after-hours or overnight trading do not count. Only the official closing value for October 19, 2026 is compared with 7,276.46, as published and without rounding. A close exactly equal to 7,276.46 resolves YES. If trading is halted for the rest of the day (for example, by a Level 3 market-wide circuit breaker) or the session ends early, the official closing value published for October 19, 2026 is used.Sources: the primary source is the "Close" value for October 19, 2026 in the Yahoo Finance historical data for ^GSPC. If Yahoo Finance does not show it, Google Finance (.INX) or another major financial data provider (Bloomberg, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal) is used. If sources differ, the value published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, the index provider, is used. Corrections published after October 20, 2026, 20:00 UTC are not considered. Void: this market is voided if U.S. stock exchanges hold no regular trading session on October 19, 2026, or if no official closing value for October 19, 2026 can be verified by October 21, 2026, 23:59 UTC.Times: the regular session closes at 4:00 PM ET (20:00 UTC) on October 19, 2026.

Will the S&P 500 close down 5% or more on Oct 19, 2026?