US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by 31 Dec 2026?

The instrument must be signed by both countries (physical or officially issued electronic signatures, on the same document or separate documents clearly accepting the same instrument), unless both officially confirm that signature is not required. In that case, formal adoption qualifies through: (i) an official joint statement announcing adoption/conclusion; (ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument was agreed; (iii) an official resolution, ministerial/executive decision, or equivalent act; or (iv) an exchange of diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance. To qualify, the instrument must: (1) be identified in official U.S. or Iranian communications, or by consensus of credible reporting, as the final deal resulting from the June 14, 2026 memorandum; and (2) contain at least one specific, concrete, measurable obligation limiting Iran’s nuclear program, such as a defined uranium enrichment cap or an explicit commitment to surrender, destroy, or dilute enriched uranium stockpiles. General pledges not to pursue nuclear weapons, maintain the status quo, or permit IAEA monitoring without concrete limits do not qualify. Obligations must be definite and unconditional. Terms expressly subject to future agreements, negotiations, or follow-on instruments, minimum requirements for future talks, or placeholders for continued negotiations do not qualify. Technical or procedural details, such as implementation dates or sequencing, may remain open if the core obligation is concrete and measurable. Resolution is based primarily on the officially released text. If the instrument is signed/adopted by the deadline but the full text is unavailable and material ambiguity remains, the market may stay open for up to 28 calendar days. If still unavailable, resolution relies on official U.S./Iranian statements and consensus reporting from major news agencies. Multilateral instruments qualify if both the U.S. and Iran are parties and all other conditions are met. Once a qualifying instrument is signed or formally adopted by both countries by the deadline, the market resolves “Yes” regardless of later entry into force, ratification, legislative approval, repudiation, withdrawal, or implementation. Primary sources are official U.S. and Iranian government communications or authorized representatives. Consensus reporting from major agencies such as Reuters, AP, or Bloomberg may also be used. If resolution remains impossible 28 days after the deadline because sources are unavailable, materially contradictory, or extraordinary circumstances prevent determination, the market voids and all outcomes settle equally. Post-resolution revisions are disregarded.

This market resolves to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC, the United States and Iran have mutually signed or formally adopted a qualifying written diplomatic instrument that constitutes the “final deal” referenced in the June 14, 2026, U.S.-Iran memorandum regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”