Saudi airspace closed before January 1, 2027?

This market will resolve based on whether Saudi Arabian Airspace (Jeddah FIR / OEJD) is subject to a qualifying closure after market launch and on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. The market resolves to “Yes” if the responsible Saudi aviation or governmental authority issues a NOTAM or other official order that generally suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace by the deadline. Limited exceptions (humanitarian, medical, emergency, or specifically authorized flights) do not disqualify the closure provided commercial traffic is prohibited by default. The closure counts from the time it takes effect (or the time the order is issued if no effective time is stated). The market resolves to “No” if no such qualifying closure occurs by the deadline. Exclusions: weather or natural events; holidays or religious observances; closures planned or announced before market creation; regular/cadenced closures predetermined before creation; technical failures (ATC, navigation, power, etc.); restrictions by nationality, registry, or operator rather than commercial traffic generally; partial closures (sectors or altitude bands only); ground stops, flow controls, or capacity measures that do not close the airspace; and any restrictions from non-Saudi authorities. Rumors do not qualify. Resolution sources: official information from Saudi authorities (including GACA and SANS) and a consensus of credible reporting. If the outcome cannot be reasonably determined, the market will be voided.

Saudi Arabia controls the Jeddah Flight Information Region (OEJD). This market asks whether its airspace will be subject to a qualifying general closure of commercial aviation before January 1, 2027.