Pete Hegseth out by New Year?

This market will resolve based on whether Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. The market resolves to “Yes” if Hegseth leaves the office of Secretary of Defense for any period of time by the deadline, or if an official announcement of his resignation or removal is made by the deadline, regardless of when that resignation or removal takes effect. An announcement of resignation/removal before the end date immediately resolves the market to “Yes”. The market resolves to “No” if Hegseth remains Secretary of Defense through the deadline and no such resignation or removal has been announced. Acting, interim, or caretaker status after leaving the office still counts as Yes. Detention, effective removal from the position, or being otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of Secretary of Defense within the market’s timeframe counts as Yes. A failed confirmation, political pressure, or internal administration disputes do not count unless Hegseth actually leaves the office or an official resignation/removal is announced. Rumors and unconfirmed media speculation do not qualify.Primary resolution source: official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government. A consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. If the outcome cannot be reasonably determined, the market will be voided.

Pete Hegseth is currently U.S. Secretary of Defense. This market asks whether he is out as Secretary of Defense by New Year’s Day 2027 - or still in office.