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xomarket
“Friedrich Merz has been Chancellor of Germany since May 2025. After weak state-election results and talk of a Kanzlertausch, he has said he will stay. This market asks whether he is out as Chancellor by December 31, 2026 - or still in office.”
This market will resolve based on whether Friedrich Merz ceases to be Chancellor of Germany at any point after market launch and on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. The market resolves to “Yes” if Merz leaves the office of Chancellor for any period of time by the deadline, or if an official announcement of his resignation or removal is made by the deadline, regardless of when that resignation or removal takes effect. The market resolves to “No” if Merz remains Chancellor through the deadline and no such resignation or removal has been announced. Acting or caretaker status after leaving office still counts as Yes. A failed confidence vote, coalition collapse, or party leadership change does not count unless Merz actually leaves the chancellery or an official resignation/removal is announced. Rumors and unconfirmed media speculation do not qualify. Primary source: the government of Germany. A consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. If the outcome cannot be reasonably determined, the market will be voided.
Friedrich Merz has been Chancellor of Germany since May 2025. After weak state-election results and talk of a Kanzlertausch, he has said he will stay. This market asks whether he is out as Chancellor by December 31, 2026 - or still in office.