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xomarket
The next French presidential election is scheduled for April 18, 2027, with a potential runoff on May 2, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier due to early elections. The President of France is elected using a two-round voting system. A candidate must receive more than 50% of the votes in the first round to win outright. If no candidate achieves this threshold, the top two candidates advance to a second-round runoff. This market resolves according to the candidate who ultimately wins the election (including any second round). MARINE LE PEN resolves to Yes if Marine Le Pen is proclaimed elected President of the French Republic. Otherwise, it resolves to No. EDOUARD PHILIPPE resolves to Yes if Edouard Philippe is proclaimed elected President of the French Republic. Otherwise, it resolves to No. JEAN-LUC MELENCHON resolves to Yes if Jean-Luc Mélenchon is proclaimed elected President of the French Republic. Otherwise, it resolves to No. ANY OTHER CANDIDATE resolves to Yes if a person other than Marine Le Pen, Édouard Philippe, or Jean-Luc Mélenchon is proclaimed elected President of the French Republic. Otherwise, it resolves to No These outcomes are mutually exclusive. Provided that an election winner is formally proclaimed, exactly one outcome will resolve to Yes and the remaining outcomes will resolve to No. If, for any reason, the final result of the election is not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC, this market will resolve to "Any Other Candidate". This market will resolve based on the official results published by the French Ministry of the Interior. In the event of any delay, ambiguity, or technical dispute, the resolution will first rely on the certified official results from the French Government. If official results are unavailable or inconclusive by the resolution deadline, the market will resolve according to a clear consensus of major reputable international and French media outlets (such as Le Monde, France 24, AFP, Reuters, BBC, and The Associated Press). Any unresolved data issues or unforeseen circumstances will result in the market being voided and resolved equally across all outcomes.
Will Marine Le Pen Win the 2027 French Presidential Election?