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xomarket
This market uses the upper bound of the target federal funds rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).This market will resolve to the number of basis points by which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate changes after the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting (scheduled for October 27-28) compared to the level before the meeting. If the rate is not changed, the market resolves to "No change". If the actual change is not a multiple of 25 basis points (for example, a cut or hike of 12.5 bps), it will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and resolve to the corresponding bracket. 50+ bps decrease resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate decreases by 50 or more basis points after the October 2026 FOMC meeting. 25 bps decrease resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate decreases by exactly 25 basis points after the October 2026 FOMC meeting. No change resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate remains unchanged after the July 2026 FOMC meeting. 25 bps increase resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate increases by exactly 25 basis points after the October 2026 FOMC meeting. 50+ bps increase resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate increases by 50 or more basis points after the October 2026 FOMC meeting. These outcomes are mutually exclusive - only one of them can resolve to Yes.The resolution is based on the official FOMC statement released after the October 27-28, 2026 meeting. The market may resolve as soon as the official statement is published. The primary resolution sources are the official FOMC statement and the Federal Reserve’s published target federal funds rate (available at federalreserve.gov). If no FOMC meeting takes place in October 2026 or no official statement is released in October 2026, the market will be voided and all outcomes will settle at 50/50.
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate remain unchanged after the October 2026 FOMC meeting?