China invades Taiwan by end of 2027?

This market will resolve based on whether China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan). The market resolves to “Yes” if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC. The market resolves to “No” if no such offensive is commenced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC. If the outcome cannot be reasonably determined by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC, this market will resolve to void. Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, qualifies; uninhabited islands do not. Drills, exercises, blockades without an offensive intended to establish control, cyber operations alone, and economic pressure do not qualify. The offensive must be intended to establish control over qualifying territory. The primary resolution source is official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council. A consensus of credible reporting may be used only if official sources are delayed or incomplete. Conflicting sources or an outcome that cannot be reasonably determined void the market.

This market asks whether China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC, or whether no such offensive is commenced by that deadline.