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This market will resolve according to the company that owns the highest-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) as of October 31, 2026, at 23:59 UTC. Resolution will be based on the “Rank” column in the table under the Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard ext/overall-no-style-control, with Style Control turned off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for “Models”. Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. ANTHROPIC resolves to Yes if Anthropic owns the highest-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard as of October 31, 2026, at 23:59 UTC. GOOGLE resolves to Yes if Google owns the highest-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard as of October 31, 2026, at 23:59 UTC. OPEN AI resolves to Yes if a company other than Anthropic or Google owns the highest-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard as of October 31, 2026, at 23:59 UTC. These outcomes are mutually exclusive - only one of them can resolve to Yes. The official resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/. If the leaderboard is unavailable at the scheduled check time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the first valid snapshot once it becomes available again. If the leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve using the most recent available data from an equivalent public source. If no leaderboard data is available for October 31, 2026, or the resolution cannot be reasonably determined due to major technical issues or discontinuation of the leaderboard, this market will be voided and all outcomes will settle at 50/50.
Will Google own the highest-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard as of October 31, 2026, at 23:59 UTC?